International Futures Model of Forecasting

The International Futures model for global forecasting (IFs) is a powerful tool for anyone interested in having a clear understanding of the future in order to plan, prepare, and intentionally shape the future rather than be in the unfortunate position of reacting to circumstances as they come.

There is no model available for global forecasting that is perfect in structure or detail (Pardee Center, 2017). Human nature is a constant flow of changing variables that play out in unpredictable ways, and so to know the future with complete certainty is an impossibility with our current technology and foresight tools, however, the IFs model is one of the most powerful ones currently available. The IFs model includes more variable and connections from a wider range of key development systems than any other forecasting model available today in 186 countries (Pardee Center, 2017). The IFs model considers areas such as agriculture, economy, education, energy, environment, socio-political, health, infrastructure, international politics, population, and human development (Pardee Center, 2017).

The IFs model does not take an agent-based approach that represents individual micro-agents focused on the rules and structures of behavior (Hughes, 2009). Instead, the IFs model is focused on representing how elements of agents can change and how their structures can evolve (Hughes, 2009). The IFs model attempt to give insight to the future possibilities, whether positive or negative and provide guidance to global leaders who have the influence to embrace an idealistic reality while avoiding hardships and disaster.

References

Hughes, B. (2009). FORECASTING LONG-TERM GLOBAL CHANGE: Introduction to International Futures (IFs). Frederick S Pardee Center for International Studies, pp. 1–21.

Pardee Center. (2017, January 20). Understand the Interconnected World [Education]. Retrieved from http://pardee.du.edu/understand-interconnected-world


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